Analyzing Pujols' decline

For the first time since his departure, the latest All-time great Cardinal Albert Pujols, is playing his old team.  It already seems like a long, long time ago that Pujols was a fixture in the middle of the Cardinals lineup.  As a Cardinal, Pujols put up incredible numbers with incredible consistency.  All stats provided by fangraphs.com:

Year	Age	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	K	BB	wRC+	WAR
2001	21	676	194	47	4	37	.329	.403	.610	.281	13.8	10.2	159	7.2
2002	22	675	185	40	2	34	.314	.394	.561	.247	10.2	10.7	150	5.5
2003	23	685	212	51	1	43	.359	.439	.667	.308	9.5	11.5	184	9.6
2004	24	692	196	51	2	46	.331	.415	.657	.326	7.5	12.1	171	8.1
2005	25	700	195	38	2	41	.330	.430	.609	.279	9.3	13.9	167	7.7
2006	26	634	177	33	1	49	.331	.431	.671	.340	7.9	14.5	174	8.2
2007	27	679	185	38	1	32	.327	.429	.568	.241	8.5	14.6	155	7.9
2008	28	641	187	44	0	37	.357	.462	.653	.296	8.4	16.2	184	8.6
2009	29	700	186	45	1	47	.327	.443	.658	.331	9.1	16.4	180	8.7
2010	30	700	183	39	1	42	.312	.414	.596	.284	10.9	14.7	164	7
2011	31	651	173	29	0	37	.299	.366	.541	.242	8.9	9.4	146	4.3

Those numbers are absolutely insane.  Pujols averaged 7.5 WAR per season in a Cardinal jersey which screams HOF.  For a little context, Miguel Cabrera's triple crown last year scored a 6.9 WAR.  Cabrera is a great hitter but he still couldn't touch Pujols' average season as a Cardinal.  Taking just offense, Cabrera's wRC+ was a 166 last year, meaning he hit 66% better than the average player that year.  From 2003 to 2009, Pujols performed higher than that in every year but one.

And as I said the consistency is amazing.  His worst year (besides 2011) was his sophomore season when he created 50% more runs that the average player and contributed a 5.5 Wins Above Replacement.  It's hard to summarize those numbers, it's just great year after great year.  Every year except his rookie year he walked more than he struck out.  For some context, right now only Dustin Pedoira, Coco Crisp, Norichika Aoki, and Marco Scutaro are walking more than they strike out.  Last year, only Carlos Lee, Jose Reyes, Joe Mauer, and Prince Fielder did it last year.  Cabrera has done it once it his career, 2011.  So four people did it in 2012, and four different people are doing it in 2013.  The current best hitter in the game has done it once, two years ago.  Pujols did it ten years in a row!  But he managed not to do in 2012 and is not on pace to do so in 2013.  So yeah, Pujols had some pretty remarkable seasons.

2006 to 2009 was his best years.  He was the best player in baseball.  Here's a top 10 in WAR for all position players from those four years.

Name	Team	PA	H	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	K%	BB%	BB/K	wRC+	WAR
Albert Pujols	Cardinals	2654	735	165	.335	.441	.637	.302	1.078	8.5%	15.4%	1.81	173	33.5
Chase Utley	Phillies	2746	717	118	.303	.391	.533	.230	.924	15.8%	9.7%	0.61	138	30.5
Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	2751	771	103	.316	.387	.531	.215	.918	16.2%	9.5%	0.59	138	23.9
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	2511	630	154	.299	.403	.570	.272	.973	18.8%	13.7%	0.7	152	23.6
David Wright	Mets	2726	730	99	.311	.395	.516	.205	.911	17.8%	12%	0.67	138	23.4
Grady Sizemore	Indians	2747	642	103	.273	.373	.489	.216	.862	19.3%	12.3%	0.64	127	23
Joe Mauer	Twins	2318	667	57	.336	.419	.496	.161	.915	9.4%	12.8%	1.36	141	22.9
Carlos Beltran	Mets	2316	565	111	.286	.379	.531	.246	.910	15.1%	13.1%	0.87	135	22.9
Matt Holliday	- - -	2673	767	119	.325	.399	.563	.238	.962	16.5%	9.6%	0.58	143	22.1
Chipper Jones	Braves	2207	595	95	.321	.422	.549	.228	.972	13.5%	15.1%	1.12	151	20.9

From 2006 to 2009 Pujols led all position players in wRC+, WAR, OBP, SLG, and BB/K.  Of course, since he was first in OBP and SLG he also was first in OPS.  He was second in BA to Joe Maurer (by one point) and second to Ryan Howard in ISO and HR.  And of course those weren't his only good years.  Pujols had an epic rookie season, taking  home rookie of the year with 37 home runs.  His best WAR was 9.6 in 2003.

And then there was 2011.  Despite being an overall strong year (4.3 WAR, 146 wRC+) for almost anyone in the majors, it was a career low in several categories.  In total, it was his worst year in doubles, batting average, on base percentage, slugging, and the aforementioned WAR and wRC+ stats.  He still hit 37 dingers of course, so not exactly what you would call lackluster by any means but it was definitely a below average season for Pujols.  Of course, he was 31.  By 31 you're passed your peak in baseball.  You can still put up great numbers (which he did) but they're not usually going to be better than your 26-29 aged seasons.

Add in that 2010 was lower than only his sophomore season at the time in terms of WAR.  In 2010 Pujols posted numbers that were weaker across the board compared to 2008 and 2009.  Again though, this is normal, as this was his age 30 season and he posted 8.6 and 8.7 WAR the two previous years.

So, you can see the declining.  But the Angels chose to ignore it.  They saw the best hitter from 2006 to 2009 and they paid for that type of production.  But Pujols of 2012 is not the same as Pujols in 2006.  He's continued the predictable decline in 2012 by posting a 3.6 WAR and 132 wRC+, a new low in both categories.  It was also his worst season in terms of BA(.285), OBP(.343), SLG(.516), ISO(.231), BB%(7.8), BB/K(.69), and HR(30).  And he is on pace to have new lows in almost all of those categories this year.

This is a textbook case on why you shouldn't give a guy a ten year contract when he's already in his 30's.  He can't put up Bonds like numbers in his late 30's unless, well, you know.  And while Pujols missed very few games due to injury, he played through the pain a lot.  I'm sure his heart was in the right place but that probably took a few years off his career.  It likely accelerated his decline as well.  And this is just the start.  Pujols has eight and a half years left on his contract.  After the first year and a half it's easy to see this turning into a Yankees/A-rod situation at some point down the road.  Pujols will represent a decent fraction of the Angel's payroll for a long time.  Perhaps at some point he has a comeback, but it doesn't make sense anymore for him to have a season like 2003, 2008, or 2009.  We may not even see him play as well as he did in 2010.  There is very little chance at this point that the Angel's front office ends up happy with the return on their investment in Pujols.

Baseball is a business, and Pujols is a professional.  I can't blame him for taking more money somewhere else.  For whatever reason Pujols wasn't attracted to the idea of forever being a Cardinals icon.  They would have built a statue to him.  And of course he'll still be loved forever by Cardinal Nation.  But he wasn't interested in necessarily being a career Cardinal.  He was okay with breaking the bank with his signing which would cause us to either let go Wainwright or Molina.  And that's okay, that doesn't make him a bad person. But I'm glad that the Card's front office are also acting like a business and decided giving a 31-year old with a growing amount of physical problems more than $200 million would be ridiculous.  Most front offices would shit their pants when confronted with the idea of losing their franchise player and pay them what ever it took to keep him.

We all of course know what they did do.  They used the saved money to do at least four crucial things: signed Molina and Wainwright, two other heavyweight Cardinals to lucrative-yet-reasonable extensions.  They signed his replacement, Allen Craig, who is outperforming Pujols overall to a reasonable, 5 year/$31 million deal.  And they brought in veteran slugger Beltran at a decent bargain, 2 years/26 million. Here's the stats for Beltran, Craig, and Pujols since 2012.  Keep in mind Pujols is making much more money than Beltran and Craig combined:

Name	PA	H	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	K%	BB%	BB/K	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Beltran	924	235	51	.282	.347	.514	.232	.861	18.7%	8.9%	0.47	133	4.9
Allen Craig	843	241	31	.311	.356	.505	.194	.861	17.2%	6.2%	0.36	137	4
Albert Pujols	1032	252	43	.273	.336	.486	.213	.822	11.6%	8.3%	0.72	122	3.7

Beltran outperformed Pujols almost across the board.  Pujols only managed to strike out less, which also ended up giving him a better BB/K.  Craig outperformed Pujols as well.  Pujols hit for slightly more power, but Craig more than made up for it, posting a lot better average and on base percentage.  Is it weird that Beltran and Craig have the same OPS?  Add in that Molina is leading the league in batting average on top of being the best defensive catcher in the game and Wainwright is putting up Cy Young Award type numbers and you can see Mozelik and company made the best possible decisions on how to spend their money.

Lastly, perhaps one of the best outcomes of letting Pujols go will be that the Cardinals earned the Angel's number one pick in the 2012 draft.  Who did the Cards take with that pick?  None other than Michael Wacha.

So thank you Pujols, for all your awesome years in which you contributed to three world series, two world series championships, and a bunch of playoff appearances.  But thank you also, for turning down $20 million a year from the Cardinals, and instead taking $24 million a year for the Angels.  Because you haven't been worth either of those since 2009, and you shouldn't even have been expected to be anyway.