Analyzing Pujols' decline

For the first time since his departure, the latest All-time great Cardinal Albert Pujols, is playing his old team.  It already seems like a long, long time ago that Pujols was a fixture in the middle of the Cardinals lineup.  As a Cardinal, Pujols put up incredible numbers with incredible consistency.  All stats provided by fangraphs.com:

Year	Age	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	K	BB	wRC+	WAR
2001	21	676	194	47	4	37	.329	.403	.610	.281	13.8	10.2	159	7.2
2002	22	675	185	40	2	34	.314	.394	.561	.247	10.2	10.7	150	5.5
2003	23	685	212	51	1	43	.359	.439	.667	.308	9.5	11.5	184	9.6
2004	24	692	196	51	2	46	.331	.415	.657	.326	7.5	12.1	171	8.1
2005	25	700	195	38	2	41	.330	.430	.609	.279	9.3	13.9	167	7.7
2006	26	634	177	33	1	49	.331	.431	.671	.340	7.9	14.5	174	8.2
2007	27	679	185	38	1	32	.327	.429	.568	.241	8.5	14.6	155	7.9
2008	28	641	187	44	0	37	.357	.462	.653	.296	8.4	16.2	184	8.6
2009	29	700	186	45	1	47	.327	.443	.658	.331	9.1	16.4	180	8.7
2010	30	700	183	39	1	42	.312	.414	.596	.284	10.9	14.7	164	7
2011	31	651	173	29	0	37	.299	.366	.541	.242	8.9	9.4	146	4.3

Those numbers are absolutely insane.  Pujols averaged 7.5 WAR per season in a Cardinal jersey which screams HOF.  For a little context, Miguel Cabrera's triple crown last year scored a 6.9 WAR.  Cabrera is a great hitter but he still couldn't touch Pujols' average season as a Cardinal.  Taking just offense, Cabrera's wRC+ was a 166 last year, meaning he hit 66% better than the average player that year.  From 2003 to 2009, Pujols performed higher than that in every year but one.

And as I said the consistency is amazing.  His worst year (besides 2011) was his sophomore season when he created 50% more runs that the average player and contributed a 5.5 Wins Above Replacement.  It's hard to summarize those numbers, it's just great year after great year.  Every year except his rookie year he walked more than he struck out.  For some context, right now only Dustin Pedoira, Coco Crisp, Norichika Aoki, and Marco Scutaro are walking more than they strike out.  Last year, only Carlos Lee, Jose Reyes, Joe Mauer, and Prince Fielder did it last year.  Cabrera has done it once it his career, 2011.  So four people did it in 2012, and four different people are doing it in 2013.  The current best hitter in the game has done it once, two years ago.  Pujols did it ten years in a row!  But he managed not to do in 2012 and is not on pace to do so in 2013.  So yeah, Pujols had some pretty remarkable seasons.

2006 to 2009 was his best years.  He was the best player in baseball.  Here's a top 10 in WAR for all position players from those four years.

Name	Team	PA	H	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	K%	BB%	BB/K	wRC+	WAR
Albert Pujols	Cardinals	2654	735	165	.335	.441	.637	.302	1.078	8.5%	15.4%	1.81	173	33.5
Chase Utley	Phillies	2746	717	118	.303	.391	.533	.230	.924	15.8%	9.7%	0.61	138	30.5
Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	2751	771	103	.316	.387	.531	.215	.918	16.2%	9.5%	0.59	138	23.9
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	2511	630	154	.299	.403	.570	.272	.973	18.8%	13.7%	0.7	152	23.6
David Wright	Mets	2726	730	99	.311	.395	.516	.205	.911	17.8%	12%	0.67	138	23.4
Grady Sizemore	Indians	2747	642	103	.273	.373	.489	.216	.862	19.3%	12.3%	0.64	127	23
Joe Mauer	Twins	2318	667	57	.336	.419	.496	.161	.915	9.4%	12.8%	1.36	141	22.9
Carlos Beltran	Mets	2316	565	111	.286	.379	.531	.246	.910	15.1%	13.1%	0.87	135	22.9
Matt Holliday	- - -	2673	767	119	.325	.399	.563	.238	.962	16.5%	9.6%	0.58	143	22.1
Chipper Jones	Braves	2207	595	95	.321	.422	.549	.228	.972	13.5%	15.1%	1.12	151	20.9

From 2006 to 2009 Pujols led all position players in wRC+, WAR, OBP, SLG, and BB/K.  Of course, since he was first in OBP and SLG he also was first in OPS.  He was second in BA to Joe Maurer (by one point) and second to Ryan Howard in ISO and HR.  And of course those weren't his only good years.  Pujols had an epic rookie season, taking  home rookie of the year with 37 home runs.  His best WAR was 9.6 in 2003.

And then there was 2011.  Despite being an overall strong year (4.3 WAR, 146 wRC+) for almost anyone in the majors, it was a career low in several categories.  In total, it was his worst year in doubles, batting average, on base percentage, slugging, and the aforementioned WAR and wRC+ stats.  He still hit 37 dingers of course, so not exactly what you would call lackluster by any means but it was definitely a below average season for Pujols.  Of course, he was 31.  By 31 you're passed your peak in baseball.  You can still put up great numbers (which he did) but they're not usually going to be better than your 26-29 aged seasons.

Add in that 2010 was lower than only his sophomore season at the time in terms of WAR.  In 2010 Pujols posted numbers that were weaker across the board compared to 2008 and 2009.  Again though, this is normal, as this was his age 30 season and he posted 8.6 and 8.7 WAR the two previous years.

So, you can see the declining.  But the Angels chose to ignore it.  They saw the best hitter from 2006 to 2009 and they paid for that type of production.  But Pujols of 2012 is not the same as Pujols in 2006.  He's continued the predictable decline in 2012 by posting a 3.6 WAR and 132 wRC+, a new low in both categories.  It was also his worst season in terms of BA(.285), OBP(.343), SLG(.516), ISO(.231), BB%(7.8), BB/K(.69), and HR(30).  And he is on pace to have new lows in almost all of those categories this year.

This is a textbook case on why you shouldn't give a guy a ten year contract when he's already in his 30's.  He can't put up Bonds like numbers in his late 30's unless, well, you know.  And while Pujols missed very few games due to injury, he played through the pain a lot.  I'm sure his heart was in the right place but that probably took a few years off his career.  It likely accelerated his decline as well.  And this is just the start.  Pujols has eight and a half years left on his contract.  After the first year and a half it's easy to see this turning into a Yankees/A-rod situation at some point down the road.  Pujols will represent a decent fraction of the Angel's payroll for a long time.  Perhaps at some point he has a comeback, but it doesn't make sense anymore for him to have a season like 2003, 2008, or 2009.  We may not even see him play as well as he did in 2010.  There is very little chance at this point that the Angel's front office ends up happy with the return on their investment in Pujols.

Baseball is a business, and Pujols is a professional.  I can't blame him for taking more money somewhere else.  For whatever reason Pujols wasn't attracted to the idea of forever being a Cardinals icon.  They would have built a statue to him.  And of course he'll still be loved forever by Cardinal Nation.  But he wasn't interested in necessarily being a career Cardinal.  He was okay with breaking the bank with his signing which would cause us to either let go Wainwright or Molina.  And that's okay, that doesn't make him a bad person. But I'm glad that the Card's front office are also acting like a business and decided giving a 31-year old with a growing amount of physical problems more than $200 million would be ridiculous.  Most front offices would shit their pants when confronted with the idea of losing their franchise player and pay them what ever it took to keep him.

We all of course know what they did do.  They used the saved money to do at least four crucial things: signed Molina and Wainwright, two other heavyweight Cardinals to lucrative-yet-reasonable extensions.  They signed his replacement, Allen Craig, who is outperforming Pujols overall to a reasonable, 5 year/$31 million deal.  And they brought in veteran slugger Beltran at a decent bargain, 2 years/26 million. Here's the stats for Beltran, Craig, and Pujols since 2012.  Keep in mind Pujols is making much more money than Beltran and Craig combined:

Name	PA	H	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	K%	BB%	BB/K	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Beltran	924	235	51	.282	.347	.514	.232	.861	18.7%	8.9%	0.47	133	4.9
Allen Craig	843	241	31	.311	.356	.505	.194	.861	17.2%	6.2%	0.36	137	4
Albert Pujols	1032	252	43	.273	.336	.486	.213	.822	11.6%	8.3%	0.72	122	3.7

Beltran outperformed Pujols almost across the board.  Pujols only managed to strike out less, which also ended up giving him a better BB/K.  Craig outperformed Pujols as well.  Pujols hit for slightly more power, but Craig more than made up for it, posting a lot better average and on base percentage.  Is it weird that Beltran and Craig have the same OPS?  Add in that Molina is leading the league in batting average on top of being the best defensive catcher in the game and Wainwright is putting up Cy Young Award type numbers and you can see Mozelik and company made the best possible decisions on how to spend their money.

Lastly, perhaps one of the best outcomes of letting Pujols go will be that the Cardinals earned the Angel's number one pick in the 2012 draft.  Who did the Cards take with that pick?  None other than Michael Wacha.

So thank you Pujols, for all your awesome years in which you contributed to three world series, two world series championships, and a bunch of playoff appearances.  But thank you also, for turning down $20 million a year from the Cardinals, and instead taking $24 million a year for the Angels.  Because you haven't been worth either of those since 2009, and you shouldn't even have been expected to be anyway.

Will the Cardinals resign Beltran?

How will the 2014 Cardinals look? A lot of that depends on what the Cardinals do with Carlos Beltran. The Cards have so far have been happy with paying Beltran the $26 million Beltran will make over his two-year contract.  Do the Cards see what else they can get from the veteran slugger?  Or do they decide its too risky and instead go with the young talent they've developed?

Beltran has exceeded expectations as a Cardinal.  Last year he clubbed 32 HRs which lead to a .227 ISO.  He contributed a 3.3 WAR.  His average tailed off, ending the year at .269, but his power numbers made up for it.  This year he has hit well again, this time his average up to .305 and his ISO is a smidge larger at .229.  His wRC+ is at 145, meaning he’s created  45% more runs than the average hitter.  So it, seems like the Cardinals should continue with Beltran, right?

Well, the Cardinals do have alternatives.  At the big league level there’s Matt Adams.  Though Adams plays only first base, current first baseman Allen Craig can also play outfield.  Through 90 PA Adams has put up similar numbers, hitting .314 with a .221 ISO.  Here’s some stats comparing the two (all stats come from fangraphs and current as of 6/25):

	PA	H	HR	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wRC+	WAR
Matt Adams	90	27	4	4.4%	23.3%	.314	.344	.535	.221	146	0.5
Carlos Beltran	284	81	17	5.6%	16.2%	.305	.345	.534	.229	145	1.2

So, pretty similar stats.  The only major difference is Matt Adam’s K%.  Adams is almost 44% more likely to strike out in an AB.  So Adams hits for power but in order to do it he has to swing and miss more often.  To see why let’s look at some plate discipline numbers:

	O-Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Swing%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%
Adams	31.1%	49.3%	68.2%	90.3%	12.1%
Beltran	32.1%	61.9%	61.9%	91.7%	8.9%

The biggest difference isn’t that Adams is swinging at too many pitches, he just misses more often.  Beltran is actually a little more likely to swing outside the zone. But when Adams swings at pitches outside zone he is way more likely to miss than Beltran. 

So while a lot of Adams’ numbers are close to Beltran’s, but the strikeout numbers are a big win for Beltran.  There just aren’t very many players who hit for average and power without striking out that much, but Beltran has been doing it for years.  Adams is an example of a growing segment of hitters, those OK with striking out a little more often if it adds a decent amount of power.  Chris Davis in Baltimore is showing this is a viable strategy.  

Adams’ big advantage is age.  At 24, Adams is yet to hit his prime while Beltran’s best years are long behind him.  He also will be more likely to hit the DL.  Adams’ biggest negative may be the lack of a sample size.  While he has several strong minor league seasons, his play in 2012 and 2013 still totals less than 200 PA.  Adams is far from a sure thing.  Adams has both a higher ceiling and a lower floor than Beltran in a 2014 season.  However Beltran is much more likely to spend a significant amount of time on the DL

However, Adams would not the only player competing for Beltran’s job.  There is also number one hitting prospect Oscar Taveras.  The 21 year old lefty owns a .306/.341/462 slash line that is very respectable.  If not for ankle issues this year he could take some starts away from Jay who is still hitting under .250.  

In fact, this whole discussion would be easier if Jay was hitting better.  If Jay wasn’t an issue than the Cardinals would be very confident that either Taveras or Adams could replace Beltran.  But now Taveras may be needed to replace Jay in the lineup.  We can’t forget about Holliday either.  At 33, most of Holliday’s numbers have been down from his career averages.

	PA	H	HR	BB%	K%	ISO	AVG	OBP	SLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	wRC+	WAR
Career	5823	1597	240	9.6%	16.6%	.221	.310	.385	.531	45.5%	19.2%	35.3%	138	43.2
2012	688	177	27	10.9%	19.2%	.202	.295	.379	.497	46.2%	18.9%	35%	141	4.7
2013	306	72	11	10.5%	14.7%	.171	.268	.350	.439	50%	16.8%	33.2%	120	1.4

Holliday’s BABIP is also at .284 for the year compared to .342 career for his career is the source for his lower numbers.  He may be getting unlucky and hitting it right at people or it may be a sign he’s just not hitting the ball as hard or well as he used to.  Also telling is his batted ball stats. His GB% is higher than usual, and his line drives and fly balls are lower than usual. That can explain his drop in ISO. Notice that 2012 was a down year for Holliday as well, as his numbers are a little worse than his career averages. Interestingly though, his wRC+ stat was better than his career average this year. I assume this is because earlier in his career Holliday played through the steroid era where offense was stronger than usual, and wRC+ compares you to the rest of the hitters in the league that year.

Anyways, 2012 was worse than career average for Holliday and 2013 so far has been worse than 2012. Not a good combination when thinking about 2014.

So, it isn’t really as simple as replacing Beltran.  It’s more about the outfield as a whole.  Between Jay, Holliday, Adams, and Taveras, all options have their downsides.  Holliday is having a predictable decline from being past his prime.  Adams hasn't played every day in the lineup and Taveras hasn't even made it to the big leagues yet.

So, without Beltran, our options include Jay, Holliday, Adams/Craig, and Taveras. So we have some options, but what if things go wrong?  What if Holliday hits the DL?  What if niether Taveras or Adams work out?  What if Jay continues to slump?  Shane Robinson would be our next best outfielder.  That’s how bad our outfield depth would be.

So we could add someone to improve depth, and perhaps the best option could be Beltran.  But that would be dependent on price.  Despite the fact that Beltran has exceeded expectations during his 2 year, $26 million contract, I don’t think the Cardinals should offer him anything too similar to that.  We’re just looking for a one year deal to add outfield depth in case there are multiple issues between Holliday, Jay, Adams, and Taveras as all have possible downsides.  But Beltran may not be interested in such a role or taking a pay cut. At the same time who knows how much longer Beltran can play full seasons in the field? Ultimately at this point the best fit for Beltran may be in the AL as a DH.  

If the Cardinals want to be the contender next year like they may need more depth in the outfield.  But we don’t need it to be from Beltran and he may not be a particularly good fit anyways. I’d be happy to have Beltran but he’ll likely want more than we would want to pay him for this particular role.  

Overall, I think Beltran’s clock is running out and paying him much would be too risky at this point.  Of course, people said that almost two years ago and they’ve been wrong.  But it’s more true now.  Beltran has to slow down at some point, and the Cardinals front office don’t want to be the ones holding the bill when he does.  That's why I think unless Beltran is willing to take less money and a reduced role, the Cardinals would probably be better off betting on their developed talent in Adams and Taveras. As a backup the Cards should acquire someone that could play everyday if needed, but Beltran may not be very cost effective for that role.

Carpenter IS the best second basemen in the National League

The other day Mike Matheny said Carpenter was the best second basemen in the NL.  And that is more than just a manager sticking up for his player.  It is an observable fact.  For one, Carpenter leads among NL second basemen in WAR.

Name	Team	WAR
Matt Carpenter	STL	3.3
Marco Scutaro	SF	2.1
Jedd Gyorko	SD	1.8
Brandon Phillips	CIN	1.7
Daniel Murphy	NYM	1.6
Neil Walker	PIR	1.2
Dan Uggla	ATL	0.4
Darwin Barney	CHI	0.2
Rickie Weeks	MIL	-0.3
Martin Prado	ARI	-0.7

With 61% the value of Carpenter, Scutaro comes in second with 2.0 WAR.  Next is Jedd Gyorko having an impressive rookie year in San Diego posting a 1.8 WAR.  Phillips, in first place in All-Star voting for second base, is fourth in WAR at 1.7, or almost half the value of Carpenter.    And rounding out in Daniel Murphy for the Mets at 1.6.  It bears pointing out here that Carpenter also bests AL second basemen as well.  The leader in WAR among AL second basemen is Pedoira at 2.7 WAR. Carpenter also has the highest WAR among Cardinal position players. Wainwright is the only Cardinal beating him at 4.0

But isn't simply enough to show you Matt Carpenter has the best WAR.  Let’s look at some statistics.  Let’s start with one of a hitter’s most important stats, OBP.  Carpenter leads in OBP among NL second basemen:

Name	OBP
Matt Carpenter	.395
Marco Scutaro	.390
Neil Walker	.352
Jedd Gyorko	.341
Brandon Phillips	.324

Scutaro is the only man close. Third place falls all the way to .352 in Walker.

Let’s move on to another common stat, batting average.  This is the first category Carpenter isn’t first in, although he get’s the runner up:

Name	AVG
Marco Scutaro	0.335
Matt Carpenter	0.311
Jedd Gyorko	0.284
Daniel Murphy	0.279
Brandon Phillips	0.273

Scutaro takes first over Carpenter here.  The top 5 in BA is a reorganization of the top 5 in WAR.  Not a strong category for Phillips who is pretty far behind Scutaro and Carpenter.

Now let’s look at a stat that measures power.  For that, I prefer Isolated Slugging percentage. It takes your Slugging percentage minus your Batting Average to get a number that represents your ability to get doubles, triples, and home runs.  Carpenter slides down in this one to fourth:

Name	ISO
Dan Uggla	.206
Jedd Gyorko	.177
Brandon Phillips	.161
Matt Carpenter	.142
Daniel Murphy	.138

Carpenter has decent power numbers but not the best.  Dan Uggla for the Braves takes first which is good for him as his batting average is only .185.  But after that Gyorko and Phillips both beat Carpenter for the first time in a category.  Murphy is right behind Carpenter and rounds out the top 5.  Scutaro takes a hit in this category as he tied at 8th with a .110, pointing out the Giant second baseman’s weakness on offense.

Due to strong performances in both OBP and SLG, Carpenter gets back to first by winning on On base Plus Slugging (OPS).

Name	OPS
Matt Carpenter	.848
Marco Scutaro	.835
Jedd Gyorko	.802
Brandon Phillips	.759
Daniel Murphy	.736

So Carpenter leads in OBP and OPS, is second in BA, and fourth in ISO.  Carpenter definitely has the best batting numbers among second basemen, with Scutaro being the only other player coming close.  But the way Scutaro drops off in ISO hurts him enough that Carpenter takes it.

If you needed any more convincing that Carpenter had the best bat among NL second basemen you would just look at .  For those unfamiliar, wRC takes your singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, strikeouts, and hit by pitches, and then weighs your performance to calculate how many runs your stats added to your team on average.  Carpenter wins it pretty easily:

Name	wRC
Matt Carpenter	48
Marco Scutaro	40
Brandon Phillips	36
Jedd Gyorko	35
Daniel Murphy	34

Carpenter has created more runs than any other NL team’s second basemen.  Some will wonder why I’m not citing RBIs or runs.  That’s because those totals are highly skewed by the people batting in front of you (RBIs) and behind you (runs).  It is also skewed based on your position in the order.  Batting leadoff means you get a lot of runs but not many RBIs.  Batting cleanup means the opposite. wRC sums up your contribution to runs by removing those biases.  For anyone confused as to why Phillips beats Gyorko in RC despite Gorkyo beind in front of him on a lot stats, that is because Phillips has had more plate appearances in which to accumulate runs created.  Thus Phillips eeks out a small lead over Gyorko.

Anyways, let’s move on defense.  Here’s fielding percentage:

Name	FP
Darwin Barney	1.000
Jedd Gyorko	0.996
Matt Carpenter	0.991
Brandon Phillips	0.985
Daniel Murphy	0.985

Barney,not even mentioned on offense, has yet to commit an error.  Behind him in second is Gyorko at .996.  Carpenter get’s third though, a huge upset when you consider this is his first season at the position.  Uggla and Scutaro lose a lot of points here, getting 8th and 9th.  

Now let’s look at a more advanced metrics.  Here’s Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).  This number represents the amount of runs the player has saved compared to an average second baseman.

Name	DRS
Matt Carpenter	6
Brandon Phillips	3
Darwin Barney	1
Neil Walker	0
Daniel Murphy	-1

Carpenter wins it, saving the Cardinals six runs more than the average second baseman.  This means that while Barney hasn’t committed an error, he also hasn’t made very many exceptional plays in the field either.

So all in all, Carpenter is strong in every aspect of hitting, and has performed well on defense as well.  Okay, let’s recap.  We’ve mentioned 8 players, and those all happen to be the top 8 in WAR.  Let’s look at all the stats we’ve discussed:

Name	WAR	wRC	OBP	AVG	OPS	DRS	FP
Matt Carpenter	3.3	48	.395	.311	.848	6	0.991
Marco Scutaro	2.1	40	.390	.335	.835	-3	0.964
Jedd Gyorko	1.8	35	.341	.284	.802	-1	0.996
Brandon Phillips	1.7	36	.324	.273	.759	3	0.985
Daniel Murphy	1.6	34	.319	.279	.736	-1	0.985
Neil Walker	1.2	28	.352	.249	.733	0	0.983
Dan Uggla	0.4	31	.320	.193	.719	-10	0.967
Darwin Barney	0.2	16	.282	.215	.607	1	1.000

Carpenter wins in a few categories and performs admirably in the rest.  While Scutaro does well at getting on base and not striking out, he is way below average in power and did poorly fielding.  Uggla was the opposite, putting up the best power numbers but not much else.  Gorko showed his potential by placing well in numerous categories but not winning any.

Phillips, the leading vote getter, also didn’t win any category although he too placed well in many categories.  However his stats compared to Carpenter shows who is the better overall player between the two.

It’s closer with Scutaro.  Scutaro takes a small lead over Carpenter with average that Carpenter mostly makes up for with a slightly smaller lead in OBP.  But it separates from there as Scutaro takes a decent loss in ISO, leading to Carpenter winning on OPS as well.  This gives Carpenter the win on offense.  Scutaro however played very subpar defense compared to Carpenter, giving the Cardinal a larger margin of victory overall.

The icing on the cake for Carpenter is that he is still 27, much younger than Phillips who is about to turn 32 and Scutaro at 37.  Scutaro is reaching retirement and Phillips is reaching the point in a career where you start to decline.  Gyorko, only 24, will be the player to watch in the future.  But one thing’s for sure, Carpenter deserves to be the starting second baseman for the National League this year.  Now go vote for him 35 times. Thanks for reading.